Lubbock and much of West Texas could see a wetter-than-normal winter, according to NOAA's new 2026–27 outlook. A strong El Niño is expected to influence weather patterns from December through February, increasing precipitation chances across the southern United States and potentially bringing drought relief to the Southern Great Plains.
NOAA released its seasonal outlook October 15. Forecasters say El Niño can shift the jet stream farther south, favoring more storms across the southern part of the country.
NOAA winter temperature outlook, December 2026–February 2027. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
NOAA winter precipitation outlook, December 2026–February 2027. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
What it means for the South Plains
Winter moisture: Odds favor above-normal precipitation across the southern United States, including parts of West Texas.
Drought: NOAA favors improving drought conditions across the Southern Great Plains through winter.
Temperatures: The seasonal outlook does not provide a firm prediction of an especially cold winter for Lubbock.
Snow and ice: More precipitation does not necessarily mean more snow. NOAA does not forecast seasonal snowfall totals this far in advance.
For farmers and ranchers, additional winter moisture could be welcome after dry stretches. But a seasonal outlook describes probabilities over three months, not how much rain or snow will fall on any particular day.
NOAA expects to update its seasonal outlook November 19. Residents should continue checking the National Weather Service in Lubbock for shorter-range forecasts and winter weather alerts.
